September 5th, 2025
In The News:
Well, I think it has finally happened. That house of cards economy we’ve been dealing with just might have collapsed. Signs are now everywhere. The problem is we might not really ever know for sure because the jobs numbers might be questionable after that recent BLS change and who knows if we’ll get real GDP numbers. But here is what we do know...Conoco is cutting 25% of its workforce, Campbells reported sales declines and expects 2026...yes 2026 sales to continue to fall. Dollar Tree warned that tariffs are going to hurt their numbers next quarter, and there was a story about Wal-Mart saying lower and middle-income families are being “squeezed.” That’s not a technical term but it also isn’t good when talking about consumer spending or a lack thereof.
CNBC had a story about job postings, and it wasn’t pretty. In short, they said:
Job openings ticked down in July to levels rarely seen since the Covid-19 pandemic, bolstering fears of cooling in the labor market. Wednesday's print was the lowest since September 2024, when just more than 7.1 million openings were reported. Outside of that blip lower last year, these job opening levels were last seen when the pandemic was causing an upheaval of the U.S. economy and labor force.
“This is a turning point for the labor market,” said Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union. “It’s yet another crack. This is yet another data point underscoring how this job market is frozen and it’s difficult for anyone to get a job right now,” Long added.
And there was this from Business Insider:
Homebuyers are backing out of real-estate deals more than ever
Homebuyers are pulling out of purchases at a record rate, wary of homeownership costs and mortgage rates. But the cold feet won't last forever.
https://stocks.apple.com/AyL5DtJhoTtKlCuSTGglKXg
There is more but for the moment this feels like plenty of evidence that the “R” word is upon us.
Newsworthy:
Last Monday was Labor Day, a day to celebrate our workers. Union’s typically make a big deal out of the holiday but this year things seem a bit gloomier. There was this from the LA Times:
“Moment of crisis”: Unions in somber mood this Labor Day
California's unions face mounting pressure to protect their members from the Trump administration's immigration raids, cuts in Medicaid services and a weakened National Labor Relations Board.
Read in Los Angeles Times: https://apple.news/AjAIXSytnS8u9XO5eVCtY8g
And this from the New York Times:
Something To Make You Think:
Yes, there is bad economic news all around us these days but wait. It gets worse. Constellation Brands which owns Modelo and Corona just lowered their sales forecasts because...consumers are buying less beer. Given the uncertainty going forward of government issued economic numbers, the “Beer Gauge” might be the most accurate forecasting tool now available.
Tip of The Week:
I picked up Harvard Business Reviews’ “10 Must Reads” for 2026. Its relatively short at 162 pages but it’s the best of the best from 2025. There are a number of interesting articles including two of my favorites... The Art of Asking Smarter Questions and The Strategic Genuis of Taylor Swift. It’s worth a look and might make someone a nice Holiday gift.
Rant of the week! A.K.A. This weeks’ “Otto” moment:
I honestly don’t have one. I have many. Therefore, in an effort to be less like Otto, I am not posting a rant this week. I realize that might set some of you off...
Friday Fun:
I had some mixed reviews on the Athletic Brewing Lemon Radler choice, but I am still a fan. I am not sure it goes with this next recipe but that happens.
Eggplant and Arugula Sandwiches:
Pretty simple: Cut the eggplant into thin strips. Baste (generously) with olive oil and balsamic vinegar mixture. Salt and pepper can be added as well. Preheat an oven to 425 degrees. Cook for seven minutes then flip, baste again and cook for another 5 minutes.
Cut in half a small baguette, butter each inside section and warm briefly. When the eggplant is finished cooking, remove from the oven and let it cool for 5 minutes. Add eggplant and arugula to the baguette half, drizzle with any remaining olive oil/balsamic vinegar and enjoy.
Credit once again to Ruth Reichl and My Kitchen Year cookbook.
Thanks for visiting.
JC
Ugh… the R word is feeling more real each day here in Michigan, and you did not even mention health care federal and state cuts that are looming and insurance rates going up. That won’t just squeeze that Walmart shopper but choke them. And farmers here are concerned that their crops won’t be harvested this fall because their seasonal workers are scared of deportation even if they enter the U.S. legally with the temporary visa. All in all, feels like a good time to save money, stay in, and eat that yummy sounding eggplant sandwich.